Mortgage rates feel mysterious until you see the levers behind them. The headline rate you read about online is an average — your actual rate depends on a half-dozen factors you can influence and a few you can't. Here's how to read the market and time your move with confidence.
What sets the base rate
Mortgage rates move loosely with the 10-year Treasury yield, not the Federal Reserve's overnight rate. When investors expect higher inflation, they demand higher yields — and mortgage rates follow. Watch the 10-year as a leading indicator and ignore daily noise.
What you control
Credit score (above 740 is the sweet spot), loan-to-value ratio (20% down or refinancing at 80% LTV unlocks the best pricing), loan type (conventional vs FHA/VA), and points you choose to buy. A 40-point credit jump or a 5% larger down payment can move your rate by 0.25%–0.5%.
Lock or float?
If rates are trending up and you're 30–45 days from closing, lock. If you're early and the market is calm, a short float can pay off. Most lenders, including Bloomfield, offer free 30-day locks and a one-time float-down if rates drop materially before closing.
How to shop without hurting your credit
Multiple mortgage credit pulls within a 14–45 day window count as one inquiry under FICO scoring models. Get quotes from at least three lenders the same week, compare APR (not just rate), and look at total cost over 5 years — not just the monthly payment.
Use our free calculators to apply this to your situation in seconds.
Frequently asked questions
Do mortgage rates follow the Fed?
Indirectly. The Fed sets short-term rates; mortgages follow the 10-year Treasury, which reflects long-term inflation expectations. A Fed cut can lower mortgage rates if the bond market already expected it — or do nothing if it didn't.
How much does credit score affect my rate?
Moving from 680 to 740 typically saves 0.25%–0.5% on your rate, which is $50–$100 a month on a $400k loan. Above 760, gains flatten out.
Should I pay points to lower my rate?
Only if you'll stay in the home longer than the break-even period (usually 4–7 years). Use the break-even calculator below to confirm.
How often should I check rates?
Weekly is plenty for shoppers; daily only if you're locked into a closing date. Don't watch every tick — you'll lock at the wrong moment.